Wishful Thinking Leads To Serious Consequences
But however much China may invest by running down its reserves, it will be irrational to expect near double-digit expansion when the demographic trends are against it. But this is taking the best-case scenario for India, and a more pessimistic scenario for China..The real problems in China will get accentuated, as exports to the US and EU will slow down, as the US in particular is determined to reduce its trade gap. This is a made-to-order situation for strategists and leaders in the three countries to ply their trade with plenty of worst-case scenarios. By 2050 Square Nut with Spring Leaf it will account for about over 50 per cent of world GDP, with India or China having the biggest GDP. But on past form, China’s leaders will continue to worry more about internal threats to their control than external ones.If one were a Chinese planner, he/she will be looking with concern over India’s growth and increasing ability to project power in the Indian Ocean Region. That is that the Indian and Chinese economies are now in two entirely different stages of development. Both have too much to lose by it.Geography and recent history have made the India-China relationship a difficult one, and one in which the United States will find ample space and opportunity to inveigle itself to its advantage.
They exist in different orbits of the world economy.In recent weeks there has been much talk about a “Quadrilateral” of nations – the US, Japan, Australia and India — to confront the spread of China’s dominance. Therefore, we must look at the present. China will naturally attempt to overcome this by stimulating domestic consumption and can even finance it by slowly reducing its foreign reserves, as Saudi Arabia and others are doing now.4 trillion. Last year, spending on internal security outstripped military spending for the first time. How China moves and acts in the future will affect the developed economies enormously as it has been the major provider of growth for the past two decades, and India’s growth had little bearing or derived little benefit from it.Now if one were an Indian planner, he/she would be looking at the China-Pakistan axis with askance. Its Communist Party is presiding over the world’s largest military buildup.3 billion people, India’s might stabilise at 1.
That it will be growing long after China gets walking sticks. Peace and growing economic interdependence are more viable options. China’s defence budget has almost certainly experienced double-digit growth for two decades. Yet in recent years there has been much speculation about the emerging rivalry between India and China. While China’s population has now stabilised at 1. In the meantime, China just keeps growing. But the Indian political discourse gives no inkling of any awareness of this or inclination to put immediate politics aside for a certain period to set course for the long term.This is not a sum that India can match, and the last thing we need is to get caught up in a numbers game. A slowed-down China now growing at 6. For a start, China’s GDP is more than four and a half times bigger than India’s. There is not even a glimmer of that now. Hope is a good thing, but wishful thinking leads to serious consequences. Where will the world get its next growth engine? Demography favours India.China’s aggressive soft power diplomacy has widely been seen as arguably the most important element in shaping the Indian Ocean strategic environment, transforming the entire region’s dynamics. But we must not forget that unlike the United States, Japan and Australia, who are physically distant from China, India lives cheek by jowl with it, sharing a long and contested frontier. The planner will also note what experts are saying about India’s growth trajectory. India has had conflicts and still perceives threats from both, jointly and severally. It is Indian and Chinese troops that face each other eyeball to eyeball. By providing large loans on generous repayment terms, investing in major infrastructure projects such as the building of roads, dams, ports, power plants, and railways, and offering military assistance and political support in the UN Security Council through its veto power, China is actively buying goodwill and influence among countries in the Indian Ocean region. The Tibetan desert, once intended to be India’s buffer against the north, has now become China’s buffer against India. Also, low-غير مجاز مي باشدt production is shifting to other low-labour غير مجاز مي باشدts economies like Vietnam and Indonesia. There are three limiting factors.But what does this imply for the world’s power structure? True, the world’s economic fulcrum will shift to Asia. The high growth period in China is petering off and that is the transition we must watch out for.
We must be careful and realistic when we analyse our prospects and decide on our actions. India’s youthful demographics favour its continued growth for a much longer period.China is big not merely in terms of territory and population, but also military might.That said, the threat from China should also not be exaggerated. Sipri usually adds about 50 per cent to the official figure that China gives for its defence spending, because even basic military items such as research and development are kept off budget.However, demographics seem to favour India, but it is still for India to show that it can take advantage of it. With a rapidly ageing population, it is also a good bet that meeting the demand for better healthcare will become a higher priority than maintaining military spending. The list of countries that are coming within China’s strategic orbit appears to be growing.The note of elation that seems to have crept into our discourse because of India’s GDP growth once gain creeping past China’s can’t be missed. Already Asia’s GDP exceeds that of the United States and the European Union. That is just a fact too — one that the rest of the world has to come to terms with. That it is the ultimate pivot state in the grand struggle for primacy between the West led by the US and Japan, and China. But we must also keep in mind that India seldom meets its promise, while China has made a habit of surprising the naysayers. Thus, even if India keeps growing at the present rate of about seven per cent, its GDP could surpass that of a China with a declining growth rate by 2050. Its military leaders constantly stress that the development of what is still only a middle-income country with a lot of very poor people takes precedence over military ambition. A good deal of this is due to the fact that India too has joined China in the high GDP growth club.According to Sipri, a research institute, annual defence spending rose from over billion in 2000 to almost 5 billion in 2016. Conflict cannot be a standoff affair for both nations. First, unlike the former Soviet Union, China has a vital national interest in the stability of the global economic system. But this is in the future, and often the future has a habit of not happening as predicted.The real test of China’s willingness to keep military spending constant to GDP will come when China’s headlong economic growth starts to slow further.For India to pick up the Chinese slack and matter to the world, it needs to be posting a more frenetic 9-10 per cent over the next decade or more. It will hence seem that India and China are destined to live out the foreseeable future as rivals, if not adversaries. A one-party dictatorship will always be able to outspend us, even if our GDPs get closer. Because its population has stabilised, China is rapidly aging, which means that its economic growth will inevitably slow down. Its GDP is now about trillion, while India is inching towards .6 per cent still adds 0-800 billion to global growth, while a speeded-up India now growing at more than seven per cent adds a mere 0 billion. But the elation misses an essential reality.6 billion around 2050
برچسب: ،